Mortgage Interest Rates

The weekly average 30-year conforming-loan interest rate rose to 6.22% as of March 19, 2026. However, the daily average rate has risen to 6.43%, increasing 44 basis points since the Iran war began.

Financial Markets

Amid regular ups and downs, stock markets have been generally trending down, and have fallen 4% to 5% since 2026 began. Large changes in stock markets can dramatically affect household wealth, consumer confidence, and housing markets, especially more affluent markets.

Oil Prices

Oil prices: the huge wildcard for the world economy. Dramatic ups and downs in oil prices can have considerable effects on consumer prices, transportation costs, inflation, consumer confidence, and financial markets. On 3/9/26, the price ranged from $81 to $119.50 per barrel.

The Price of Gas

Inflation: Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Last month's inflation reading was subdued. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the general CPI-All Items inflation reading for February 2026 was unchanged at 2.4%.

Producer Price Index (PPI)

The Producer Price Index, often a forward indicator for consumer inflation, rose to its highest reading in 12 months. Year over year, the PPI rose 3.4% for the 12 months ended February 2026. Any effects of the Iran war, should they occur, will not yet appear in either of these charts.

Federal Funds Interest Rate & Fed Policy

The Fed left its benchmark rate unchanged at its March meeting. In September 2024, the Fed reduced the rate by a half point, then by a quarter point in each of October, November, and December 2025. There were no changes in January or February 2026. The board currently projects 1 rate reduction in 2026 (but that can change quickly).

U.S. Real GDP

Q4 2025 GDP was revised significantly downward to -0.6%, following a strong Q3 reading of 4.4%.

U.S. Jobs Report

Bitcoin Price

Consumer Confidence

Consumer confidence remains very low, and we do not yet have a reading reflecting the reaction to the war.